(Building rockets is) "super-frickin'-damn-hard."- Elon Musk (quoted part)
I got this from Alan Boyle's latest article on SpaceX. Mr. Musk estimates the probability of full COTS-1 mission success (Dragon gets to orbit and is recovered) is 60% and notes that, historical, the reliability of launch vehicles doesn't stabilize until the 3rd or 4th flights. On the plus side, launch number one was almost flawless. On the down side, they had an abort on the test firing and have found small cracks in the nozzles after the test. They still hope to fly on Wed. the 8th or Thur. the 9th. And this dude is thinking ahead. He wants to build a "super-heavy-lift rocket" which is more powerful than the Saturn V. Go SpaceX You should read the article, it is worth a few minutes of your time.